Will the US and Iran reach a formal diplomatic agreement before December 31, 2026?

Historical patterns show US-Iran negotiations have repeatedly failed to produce lasting formal agreements, with the JCPOA being a rare exception that was later abandoned. Current tensions, including sanctions, regional conflicts, and domestic political constraints in both countries, make a formal agreement highly unlikely by end of 2026. While backchannel talks may occur, converting them to formal diplomatic agreements faces significant obstacles from hardliners on both sides.